Renewed Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict: Causes, Escalation, and Impacts

The conflict along the Thailand-Cambodia border has erupted with renewed violence. On July 24, 2025, the contentious frontier witnessed intense military engagements, including artillery shelling, rocket attacks, drone strikes, and F-16 airstrikes. This resurgence of hostilities on the 817 km undemarcated border has led to significant civilian casualties, mass evacuations, and reciprocal diplomatic expulsions, marking Southeast Asia's most severe bilateral conflict in recent years.

For further insights, refer to: Thai F-16 Jets Bomb Cambodian Military Targets Amid Border Escalation

This article delves into the recent escalation, the historical roots of the conflict, domestic and regional triggers, the impact on civilians and trade, and potential future scenarios.

Date	Location	Incident	Casualties & Impact	Response
23 Jul	Chong An Ma, Ubon Ratchathani	Landmine blast injures Thai soldiers	1 maimed, 4 wounded	Thailand shuts 4 checkpoints, recalls ambassador
24 Jul (morning)	Ta Muen Thom	Thai drone sparks gunfire; Thailand accuses Cambodia	≥12 dead, dozens wounded	F-16 airstrikes; ambassadors expelled
24 Jul (afternoon)	Surin & Si Sa Ket	Rocket attacks on civilian sites	6 dead, 40,000 displaced	Thailand invokes Article 51 self-defence
24 Jul (evening)	Bangkok & Phnom Penh	ASEAN urges calm	–	Malaysia mediates; ASEAN diplomacy activated

Historical Background: The Preah Vihear Dispute

Preah Vihear Temple and Escarpment

• 1907 Map Controversy: A French map allocated control of the temple to Cambodia, conflicting with earlier agreements favoring Thailand.
• 1962 ICJ Verdict: The temple was awarded to Cambodia, but the surrounding land was left unresolved.
• 2013 ICJ Clarification: Cambodia was granted full sovereignty over the surrounding promontory.
• 2008–2011 Armed Clashes: The UNESCO heritage listing reignited tensions, resulting in numerous deaths and displacements.

Unfinished Border Demarcation

• Only two-thirds of the colonial-era border pillars have been verified.
• The Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) resumed in June 2025, but Sector 6, including Ta Muen Thom, remains unresolved.

What Is Driving the Current Border Conflict?

Stalled Border Negotiations

• Cambodia is preparing another ICJ case, while Thailand insists on bilateral talks as per the 2000 MoU.
• Negotiations broke down after Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn was suspended over leaked conciliatory remarks.

Military Posturing and Provocations

• Thailand has deployed F-16s under the 2011 Chakrabongse Plan.
• Both countries accuse each other of drone incursions and trench-building near the conflict zone.

Domestic Political Pressures

• In Thailand, nationalists accuse the interim government of yielding territory.
• In Cambodia, Prime Minister Hun Manet leans on military strength to assert leadership, promising retaliation if provoked.

Cross-Border Smuggling and Armed Gangs

The Dangrek escarpment serves as a hub for illegal trade that fuels violence:

• Rosewood smuggling by armed groups.
• Methamphetamine trafficking by Golden Triangle syndicates.
• Scam centers in Cambodia luring Thai youth into forced digital labor.

Government Responses and Diplomatic Moves

Official Statements (24–25 July)

Country	Key Messages	Platform
Thailand	“Artillery on civilians… ready to escalate.”	Press briefings
Royal Thai Army	“Targeted military sites under self-defence.”	HQ conference
Cambodia	“Brutal aggression… we will strike back.”	MoD statement, social media
Hun Manet	“Fully prepared for combat.”	Facebook Live

Diplomatic Actions

• Ambassadors were expelled within 36 hours.
• ASEAN mediation is being led by Malaysia, though no emergency summit has been convened.
• The upcoming JBC round has been suspended indefinitely.

Regional and Global Reactions

ASEAN

• Malaysia and Vietnam are urging restraint.
• Other members remain largely silent due to ASEAN’s principle of non-interference.

China and the United States

• China maintains cautious neutrality to protect its BRI and Mekong projects.
• The U.S. calls for restraint, citing threats to regional partnerships.

Neighbours

• Laos has increased security in the tri-border area.
• Vietnam is monitoring potential refugee inflows.

Civilian Impact and Humanitarian Fallout

Displacement and Evacuations

• Over 40,000 civilians have been evacuated in Thailand.
• Cambodian villages are experiencing blackouts and disruptions in rice planting.

Economic and Social Disruptions

Sector	Immediate Impact	Long-Term Risk
Trade	Checkpoints shut; goods stuck	Cambodian exports hit; Thai SMEs disrupted
Tourism	Temple sites closed	Preah Vihear tourism collapse
Migrant Labor	Thai deportations rising	Loss of remittances, trafficking risk up

Human Rights Concerns

• There are accusations of shelling civilian zones and bombing hospitals.
• Access for independent observers remains restricted.

What Comes Next? Scenarios and Forecasts

Scenario	Likelihood	Key Signs	Possible Mediators
Cease-fire & JBC Resumes	Moderate	Checkpoints reopen; photo-ops of joint patrols	ASEAN, China
Frozen Conflict	High	Ongoing evacuations, propaganda	UN shuttle diplomacy
Wider Escalation	Low to Moderate	Heavy artillery moved; troops mobilized	UNSC, U.S.–China dialogue

Conclusion: Borderlines, Nationalism & the Risk of Another War

The Thailand-Cambodia border dispute is not merely a relic of colonial-era maps; it is now propelled by nationalist politics, stalled diplomacy, and transnational criminal networks. The 2025 flare-up is the most severe since the 2008–2011 crisis, and potentially more hazardous due to new drone warfare and regional instability.

To avert another prolonged conflict, ASEAN diplomacy, international legal frameworks, and renewed efforts for boundary demarcation are essential. Failure to do so could turn this frontier into a persistent fault line in Southeast Asia's security landscape.