US Think Tank Predicts Increased India–Pakistan Conflict Risk Due to Terrorism by 2026
According to a report by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a prominent think tank in the United States, a renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan, driven by intensified terrorist activities, is a likely scenario in 2026.
The CFR report, which draws from a survey of American foreign policy experts, highlighted a "moderate to high likelihood" of increased tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad, with terrorism identified as the key catalyst. The report also remarked on the previous efforts of the Donald Trump administration to de-escalate international conflicts, including those between India and Pakistan, alongside issues in Ukraine, Gaza, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Southeast Asia.
Background: May 2025 Military Face-Off
This warning emerges following a brief yet intense military encounter in May 2025, which was triggered by a lethal terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of 26 civilians.
In retaliation, the Indian Army initiated Operation Sindoor on the night of May 6, aimed at dismantling terrorist bases across the border in Pakistan. Official reports from India indicated that over 100 terrorists and nine terror camps were eliminated during the operation.
From May 7 to May 10, Pakistan conducted several retaliatory attempts using armed drones targeting Indian military and civilian sites. However, all such incursions were successfully intercepted and neutralized by Indian air defense and ground forces, with no casualties or material losses reported.
Ceasefire After Escalation Pressure
The mounting military and diplomatic pressure reportedly led Pakistan's military leadership to pursue de-escalation. On May 10, discussions between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMO) of both nations resulted in an agreement to cease all firing and military actions along the Line of Control (LoC).
Regional Instability Adds to Risk
The CFR report also highlighted regional instability, pointing to a moderate risk of armed conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2026. This risk is associated with a resurgence of cross-border militant attacks, particularly involving the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Earlier this year, tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan rose following a Pakistani airstrike targeting TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud, which led to retaliatory measures and increased hostilities along the border.
Outlook for 2026
The CFR concluded that terrorism-driven escalation remains the most significant threat in South Asia, cautioning that without ongoing counter-terror initiatives, diplomatic dialogue, and regional stabilization, India-Pakistan relations may once again edge towards military confrontation in 2026.
The report underscores the precarious security landscape in the region, where terrorist networks, cross-border militancy, and swift military reactions continue to jeopardize peace and stability.
